https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer

 Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

IMO Grand Challenge

Austin

Em of the Night

Undox

Bob Kelso

Dave Aiello

Evan Conrad

Łukasz Mielicki

cultureulterior

Nikola

hagi

monkas

We want to switch to a new database, because we've been experiencing some pain points with Firestore:
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are not very powerful. For example, you can't filter two fields simultaneously by the greater than operator '>'.
- Related: Firebase cloud functions have extremely slow cold-start times (>5 seconds is common), and deploying new versions can take minutes.

We are actively researching alternatives, but we could use your help!

What database should we switch to? The rest of our tech stack is Nextjs, React, Typescript, and Tailwind.

Submit your answer, or bet on which we will decide on! This is not a poll, this is a prediction market; this market will resolve to the database that is officially powering our site as of market close time (end of day PT on May 31st)

(Our company is Manifold Markets, which runs this site!)

Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

Backend v2

Jordan Jurcyk

CompmanJX3

howtodowtle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Finals

Close date updated to 2022-06-16 11:59 pm

Sports

On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. This study aims to test these claims more rigorously.

This study will be conducted online. SMTM write "the only prerequisite for signing up is being willing to eat nothing but potatoes for at least four weeks, and being willing to share your weight data with us." Participants will weigh themselves and enter this data into a spreadsheet. When enough data has been collected, SMTM will publish the results.

This question will resolve according to the first analysis SMTM publish on their blog.

May 10, 4:05pm: Full details of the study can be found here:
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/

May 10, 6:01pm: Clarifications: (1) This question will resolve according to the percentage of the participants who lose 20lbs having COMPLETED 4 weeks of the diet.
(2) The population in question will be the first 150 participants who ATTEMPT the diet.

Close date updated to 2022-07-11 12:00 pm

Science

Research.Bet

This resolves according to https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022 . Quoting them:

This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.

If the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to "Yes". 
Otherwise, the market will resolve "No".

Note, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.

Economics

Ethereum Roadmap

This market resolves to YES if, at some point on or before 1/1/23, the identity of the person who leaked the draft SCOTUS abortion decision is known with high confidence. For example, if a major news source confidently the identity as fact, or if the leaker admits it, or if the Supreme Court takes action against someone. I will roughly base my decision on whether I think there's an 80%+ chance the named person is responsible.

Law & Order

Politics

SCOTUS

Adele Lopez

Michael Wheatley

Gavriel K

Ellie High

I'll resolve according to the number of current justices listed at resolution time on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States

Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)

Internet

Musk Mania

Twitter

Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year?

Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES.

Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.

Predict anything!